Backtest sygnałów krypto – skuteczność reguł dla każdej monety
Symulacja wyłącznie długich pozycji dla każdej reguły na dziennych danych Binance od 2021-09-01 (lub daty debiutu) do 2026-09-18, prowizja 0,1% od strony, realizacja na kolejnej świecy.
| Reguła | Mediana stopy zwrotu | Mediana maks. obsunięcia | Lepszy niż kup & trzymaj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kup & trzymaj | -73% | -94% | – |
| Dzienny | -8% | -58% | 82 / 100 |
| Tygodniowy | -1% | -65% | 87 / 100 |
| Miesięczny | +0% | -63% | 84 / 100 |
| Roczny | -19% | -68% | 82 / 100 |
Dlaczego reguły podążania za trendem dominują na rynku krypto
Zanim wybraliśmy te reguły, przetestowaliśmy piętnaście popularnych strategii wskaźnikowych na 30 monetach o dużej kapitalizacji w okresie pięciu lat. Podejścia oparte na powrocie do średniej — kupowanie przy RSI poniżej 30 czy kupowanie dolnej wstęgi Bollingera — przyniosły łącznie stratę, ponieważ trendy spadkowe na rynku krypto utrzymują się znacznie dłużej, niż sugerują oscylatory. Sam MACD oraz złoty krzyż 50/200 okazały się albo zbyt wolne, albo zbyt zaszumione. Cztery reguły stosowane w tym serwisie (Supertrend z filtrem 200-dniowym, wybicia Donchiana 20/10 i 55/20 oraz rosnący reżim 200-dniowy) każda z osobna pobiła strategię kup i trzymaj na większości monet, mniej więcej o połowę zmniejszając maksymalne obsunięcie. Ich skuteczność jest z założenia niska (30–40%%): przyjmują wiele małych strat i kilka bardzo dużych zysków.
Każda strona monety pokazuje tę samą symulację dla danego aktywa; poniżej znajduje się pełna tabela.
Wyniki dla poszczególnych monet
| # | Moneta | Kup & trzymaj | Dzienny | Tygodniowy | Miesięczny | Roczny | Maks. obsunięcie kup & trzymaj | Maks. obsunięcie miesięczne | Od |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bitcoin BTC | +66% | +120% | +136% | +54% | +107% | -77% | -39% | 2021-09-01 |
| 2 |  Ethereum ETH | -32% | +70% | +10% | +48% | +3% | -79% | -35% | 2021-09-01 |
| 3 |  BNB BNB | +56% | +46% | +71% | +55% | -16% | -70% | -45% | 2021-09-01 |
| 4 |  XRP XRP | +13% | -16% | +168% | +5% | -6% | -78% | -59% | 2021-09-01 |
| 5 |  Solana SOL | +2% | +388% | +751% | +55% | +246% | -96% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 6 |  TRON TRX | +256% | +30% | +12% | +11% | +237% | -60% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 7 |  Zcash ZEC | +930% | +606% | +3,621% | +872% | +555% | -94% | -77% | 2021-09-01 |
| 8 |  Dogecoin DOGE | -70% | +5% | +230% | +85% | -68% | -85% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 9 |  Chainlink LINK | -59% | -9% | -29% | -19% | -57% | -85% | -69% | 2021-09-01 |
| 10 |  Cardano ADA | -92% | -45% | -65% | -14% | -68% | -95% | -71% | 2021-09-01 |
| 11 |  Stellar XLM | -45% | +23% | +99% | +38% | -38% | -83% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 12 |  Uniswap UNI | -72% | +8% | -9% | +38% | -51% | -92% | -78% | 2021-09-01 |
| 13 |  Bitcoin Cash BCH | -61% | +10% | -54% | +33% | -29% | -89% | -42% | 2021-09-01 |
| 14 |  NEAR Protocol NEAR | -32% | +151% | +705% | +114% | +3% | -95% | -77% | 2021-09-01 |
| 15 |  Litecoin LTC | -68% | -73% | -82% | -75% | -56% | -85% | -83% | 2021-09-01 |
| 16 |  Avalanche AVAX | -81% | +111% | +91% | +186% | -60% | -96% | -60% | 2021-09-01 |
| 17 |  Gram (prev. Toncoin) GRAM | -18% | +0% | -10% | +0% | +0% | -26% | +0% | 2026-07-02 |
| 18 |  Hedera HBAR | -70% | +21% | +153% | +76% | -46% | -93% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 19 |  Sui SUI | -42% | +341% | +127% | +115% | +15% | -88% | -63% | 2023-05-03 |
| 20 |  Shiba Inu SHIB | -24% | -15% | +351% | +83% | +30% | -95% | -52% | 2021-09-01 |
| 21 |  Bittensor TAO | -60% | -71% | -41% | -15% | -55% | -80% | -58% | 2024-04-11 |
| 22 |  Aave AAVE | -66% | -13% | -63% | -42% | -41% | -88% | -76% | 2021-09-01 |
| 23 |  Ondo ONDO | -55% | -39% | -18% | -29% | +12% | -80% | -41% | 2025-04-11 |
| 24 |  Aster ASTER | -63% | +11% | -41% | -25% | +10% | -77% | -29% | 2025-10-06 |
| 25 |  Ethena ENA | -78% | +148% | -40% | +79% | -71% | -95% | -53% | 2024-04-02 |
| 26 |  Pump.fun PUMP | -28% | +47% | +29% | +5% | +4% | -86% | -49% | 2025-09-11 |
| 27 |  Polkadot DOT | -97% | -17% | -67% | -11% | -58% | -99% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 28 |  World Liberty Financial WLFI | -75% | +0% | -35% | -16% | +0% | -79% | -20% | 2025-09-01 |
| 29 |  Morpho MORPHO | +33% | -15% | +16% | -12% | +13% | -51% | -33% | 2025-10-03 |
| 30 |  Pepe PEPE | +2% | +153% | +845% | +264% | +6% | -91% | -62% | 2023-05-05 |
| 31 |  Internet Computer ICP | -96% | +14% | -68% | -57% | -43% | -97% | -84% | 2021-09-01 |
| 32 |  Sky SKY | -10% | -15% | 0% | -22% | -34% | -46% | -32% | 2025-09-17 |
| 33 |  Worldcoin WLD | -80% | -17% | +24% | +43% | -73% | -98% | -79% | 2023-07-24 |
| 34 |  Arbitrum ARB | -83% | +42% | -2% | +2% | -19% | -97% | -74% | 2023-03-23 |
| 35 |  United Stables U | +0% | 0% | -1% | -1% | +0% | 0% | -1% | 2026-01-13 |
| 36 |  Ethereum Classic ETC | -88% | -61% | -37% | +5% | -58% | -92% | -43% | 2021-09-01 |
| 37 |  BFUSD BFUSD | +0% | -1% | -2% | -1% | -1% | 0% | -1% | 2025-08-13 |
| 38 |  POL (ex-MATIC) POL | -74% | -17% | +59% | -33% | -23% | -90% | -64% | 2024-09-13 |
| 39 |  JUST JST | +44% | -30% | +12% | -54% | +13% | -80% | -75% | 2021-09-01 |
| 40 |  Quant QNT | -66% | -35% | -21% | +4% | -86% | -89% | -52% | 2021-09-01 |
| 41 |  Jupiter JUP | -60% | -55% | -1% | -75% | -57% | -92% | -83% | 2024-01-31 |
| 42 |  Cosmos Hub ATOM | -93% | -50% | -63% | +64% | -43% | -97% | -49% | 2021-09-01 |
| 43 |  Algorand ALGO | -92% | +29% | +41% | +41% | -69% | -97% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 44 |  Filecoin FIL | -99% | -60% | -20% | -59% | -57% | -99% | -83% | 2021-09-01 |
| 45 |  NEXO NEXO | -64% | -3% | +96% | +64% | -12% | -78% | -26% | 2022-04-29 |
| 46 |  PancakeSwap CAKE | -90% | -24% | +146% | +2% | -74% | -96% | -59% | 2021-09-01 |
| 47 |  Render RENDER | -77% | -37% | -28% | -66% | +0% | -88% | -72% | 2024-07-26 |
| 48 |  Injective INJ | -51% | +733% | -19% | +109% | +589% | -95% | -74% | 2021-09-01 |
| 49 |  Dash DASH | -73% | +191% | -33% | -37% | -49% | -93% | -81% | 2021-09-01 |
| 50 |  VeChain VET | -94% | +107% | +318% | -7% | -44% | -98% | -64% | 2021-09-01 |
| 51 |  Ether.fi ETHFI | -77% | -31% | +42% | -6% | +18% | -96% | -64% | 2024-03-18 |
| 52 |  Aerodrome Finance AERO | +37% | +0% | -8% | +0% | +0% | -15% | +0% | 2026-07-17 |
| 53 |  Aptos APT | -90% | +14% | -40% | +20% | -48% | -97% | -76% | 2022-10-19 |
| 54 |  Official Trump TRUMP | -96% | -34% | -59% | -20% | +0% | -97% | -30% | 2025-01-19 |
| 55 |  Stacks STX | -81% | +281% | +114% | +101% | -39% | -97% | -70% | 2021-09-01 |
| 56 |  Curve DAO CRV | -85% | +148% | +421% | -12% | -84% | -97% | -73% | 2021-09-01 |
| 57 |  Pudgy Penguins PENGU | -72% | +43% | +144% | +80% | -50% | -91% | -47% | 2024-12-17 |
| 58 |  币安人生 (BinanceLife) 币安人生 | +257% | -8% | +369% | +438% | +6% | -85% | -32% | 2026-01-07 |
| 59 |  Pyth Network PYTH | -87% | -34% | -70% | -80% | -24% | -97% | -85% | 2024-02-02 |
| 60 |  Pendle PENDLE | +203% | -31% | +163% | +302% | -3% | -85% | -47% | 2023-07-03 |
| 61 |  Raydium RAY | -85% | +1,647% | +4,916% | +990% | +324% | -99% | -74% | 2021-09-01 |
| 62 |  Virtuals Protocol VIRTUAL | +25% | -54% | -22% | -47% | -3% | -79% | -56% | 2025-04-11 |
| 63 |  Artificial Superintelligence Alliance FET | -74% | +579% | +474% | +456% | +198% | -96% | -72% | 2021-09-01 |
| 64 |  Midnight NIGHT | -50% | +0% | -36% | +0% | +0% | -67% | +0% | 2026-03-11 |
| 65 |  Celestia TIA | -82% | -48% | -87% | -43% | -7% | -99% | -64% | 2023-10-31 |
| 66 |  Tezos XTZ | -95% | -42% | -64% | +14% | -44% | -98% | -45% | 2021-09-01 |
| 67 |  LayerZero ZRO | -67% | -58% | -70% | -64% | -3% | -90% | -72% | 2024-06-20 |
| 68 |  Falcon Finance FF | -55% | +43% | -36% | -25% | +24% | -79% | -56% | 2025-09-29 |
| 69 |  Lido DAO LDO | -80% | -45% | -36% | +39% | -50% | -94% | -66% | 2022-05-09 |
| 70 |  Sei SEI | -73% | -62% | +65% | +81% | -77% | -96% | -71% | 2023-08-15 |
| 71 |  Sun Token SUN | -48% | +99% | +110% | -10% | +40% | -88% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 72 |  Decred DCR | -90% | -53% | -70% | -78% | -76% | -95% | -88% | 2021-09-01 |
| 73 |  Gnosis GNO | -60% | -48% | +76% | -3% | -7% | -86% | -67% | 2021-09-01 |
| 74 |  Starknet STRK | -98% | -47% | -74% | -69% | -36% | -99% | -83% | 2024-02-20 |
| 75 |  Terra Luna Classic LUNC | -88% | +101% | -5% | +38% | -79% | -94% | -76% | 2022-09-09 |
| 76 |  Artificial Inu AI | -99% | -49% | -72% | -67% | -30% | -99% | -78% | 2024-01-04 |
| 77 |  Optimism OP | -90% | +87% | -47% | +63% | +50% | -98% | -72% | 2022-06-01 |
| 78 |  Arweave AR | -94% | +11% | -33% | -42% | +282% | -98% | -86% | 2021-09-01 |
| 79 |  Kite KITE | +44% | -26% | +121% | +47% | -8% | -70% | -42% | 2025-11-03 |
| 80 |  Bonk BONK | -87% | -27% | +185% | +0% | -61% | -96% | -56% | 2023-12-15 |
| 81 |  Ethereum Name Service ENS | -92% | -33% | +23% | -44% | -48% | -95% | -66% | 2021-11-10 |
| 82 |  Conflux CFX | -84% | +201% | -2% | +203% | -16% | -97% | -78% | 2021-09-01 |
| 83 |  Maple Finance SYRUP | 0% | -1% | -67% | -33% | +0% | -81% | -47% | 2025-05-06 |
| 84 |  FLOKI FLOKI | -46% | +74% | +615% | +87% | +40% | -94% | -79% | 2023-05-05 |
| 85 |  Plasma XPL | -93% | -36% | -65% | -40% | +0% | -96% | -45% | 2025-09-25 |
| 86 |  Jito JTO | -81% | -75% | -80% | +50% | -71% | -95% | -59% | 2023-12-07 |
| 87 |  Trust Wallet TWT | -48% | -13% | +4% | +55% | -70% | -87% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 88 |  Zama ZAMA | +70% | +5% | +14% | +60% | +20% | -49% | -29% | 2026-02-02 |
| 89 |  The Graph GRT | -98% | +63% | +238% | -14% | -34% | -99% | -60% | 2021-09-01 |
| 90 |  Theta Network THETA | -97% | -18% | +87% | -12% | -23% | -99% | -63% | 2021-09-01 |
| 91 |  IOTA IOTA | -96% | -16% | -52% | -7% | -72% | -98% | -66% | 2021-09-01 |
| 92 |  EigenCloud (prev. EigenLayer) EIGEN | -94% | -56% | -76% | -69% | -34% | -97% | -79% | 2024-10-01 |
| 93 |  Compound COMP | -96% | -8% | -67% | -30% | -75% | -97% | -64% | 2021-09-01 |
| 94 |  dogwifhat WIF | -86% | -39% | -68% | -25% | -36% | -97% | -56% | 2024-03-05 |
| 95 |  JasmyCoin JASMY | -98% | +7% | +396% | -7% | +37% | -99% | -83% | 2021-11-22 |
| 96 |  Kaia KAIA | -79% | -23% | -58% | -62% | -4% | -94% | -72% | 2024-10-31 |
| 97 |  Convex Finance CVX | -96% | -53% | +171% | -42% | -81% | -98% | -70% | 2021-12-23 |
| 98 |  THORChain RUNE | -95% | -5% | +354% | +212% | +45% | -98% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 99 |  Axie Infinity AXS | -99% | -68% | +198% | -48% | -48% | -99% | -73% | 2021-09-01 |
| 100 |  DoubleZero 2Z | -92% | -13% | -54% | -30% | +0% | -92% | -32% | 2025-10-02 |
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