Backtest Sinyal Kripto – Kinerja Aturan per Koin
Simulasi long-only untuk tiap aturan pada data harian Binance dari 2021-09-01 (atau tanggal listing) hingga 2026-09-18, biaya 0,1% per sisi, eksekusi pada candle berikutnya.
| Aturan | Median imbal hasil | Median drawdown maksimum | Mengungguli buy & hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy & hold | -73% | -94% | – |
| Harian | -8% | -58% | 82 / 100 |
| Mingguan | -1% | -65% | 87 / 100 |
| Bulanan | +0% | -63% | 84 / 100 |
| Tahunan | -19% | -68% | 82 / 100 |
Kenapa aturan trend following unggul di pasar kripto
Sebelum memilih aturan-aturan ini kami menguji lima belas strategi indikator populer pada 30 koin large cap selama lima tahun. Pendekatan mean reversion — membeli saat RSI di bawah 30, membeli di Bollinger Band bawah — merugi secara agregat karena downtrend kripto bertahan jauh lebih lama daripada yang disiratkan osilator. MACD sendirian dan golden cross 50/200 terlalu lambat atau terlalu banyak noise. Empat aturan yang dipakai di situs ini (Supertrend dengan filter 200 hari, breakout Donchian 20/10 dan 55/20, serta rezim SMA 200 hari yang menanjak) masing-masing mengungguli buy-and-hold pada mayoritas koin sekaligus memangkas drawdown maksimum hingga kira-kira separuh. Win rate-nya rendah (30–40%%) memang dari desainnya: banyak kerugian kecil demi beberapa keuntungan yang sangat besar.
Setiap halaman koin menampilkan simulasi yang sama untuk aset tersebut; di bawah ini tabel lengkapnya.
Hasil per koin
| # | Koin | Buy & hold | Harian | Mingguan | Bulanan | Tahunan | Maks. DD buy & hold | Maks. DD bulanan | Sejak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bitcoin BTC | +66% | +120% | +136% | +54% | +107% | -77% | -39% | 2021-09-01 |
| 2 |  Ethereum ETH | -32% | +70% | +10% | +48% | +3% | -79% | -35% | 2021-09-01 |
| 3 |  BNB BNB | +56% | +46% | +71% | +55% | -16% | -70% | -45% | 2021-09-01 |
| 4 |  XRP XRP | +13% | -16% | +168% | +5% | -6% | -78% | -59% | 2021-09-01 |
| 5 |  Solana SOL | +2% | +388% | +751% | +55% | +246% | -96% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 6 |  TRON TRX | +256% | +30% | +12% | +11% | +237% | -60% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 7 |  Zcash ZEC | +930% | +606% | +3,621% | +872% | +555% | -94% | -77% | 2021-09-01 |
| 8 |  Dogecoin DOGE | -70% | +5% | +230% | +85% | -68% | -85% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 9 |  Chainlink LINK | -59% | -9% | -29% | -19% | -57% | -85% | -69% | 2021-09-01 |
| 10 |  Cardano ADA | -92% | -45% | -65% | -14% | -68% | -95% | -71% | 2021-09-01 |
| 11 |  Stellar XLM | -45% | +23% | +99% | +38% | -38% | -83% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 12 |  Uniswap UNI | -72% | +8% | -9% | +38% | -51% | -92% | -78% | 2021-09-01 |
| 13 |  Bitcoin Cash BCH | -61% | +10% | -54% | +33% | -29% | -89% | -42% | 2021-09-01 |
| 14 |  NEAR Protocol NEAR | -32% | +151% | +705% | +114% | +3% | -95% | -77% | 2021-09-01 |
| 15 |  Litecoin LTC | -68% | -73% | -82% | -75% | -56% | -85% | -83% | 2021-09-01 |
| 16 |  Avalanche AVAX | -81% | +111% | +91% | +186% | -60% | -96% | -60% | 2021-09-01 |
| 17 |  Gram (prev. Toncoin) GRAM | -18% | +0% | -10% | +0% | +0% | -26% | +0% | 2026-07-02 |
| 18 |  Hedera HBAR | -70% | +21% | +153% | +76% | -46% | -93% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 19 |  Sui SUI | -42% | +341% | +127% | +115% | +15% | -88% | -63% | 2023-05-03 |
| 20 |  Shiba Inu SHIB | -24% | -15% | +351% | +83% | +30% | -95% | -52% | 2021-09-01 |
| 21 |  Bittensor TAO | -60% | -71% | -41% | -15% | -55% | -80% | -58% | 2024-04-11 |
| 22 |  Aave AAVE | -66% | -13% | -63% | -42% | -41% | -88% | -76% | 2021-09-01 |
| 23 |  Ondo ONDO | -55% | -39% | -18% | -29% | +12% | -80% | -41% | 2025-04-11 |
| 24 |  Aster ASTER | -63% | +11% | -41% | -25% | +10% | -77% | -29% | 2025-10-06 |
| 25 |  Ethena ENA | -78% | +148% | -40% | +79% | -71% | -95% | -53% | 2024-04-02 |
| 26 |  Pump.fun PUMP | -28% | +47% | +29% | +5% | +4% | -86% | -49% | 2025-09-11 |
| 27 |  Polkadot DOT | -97% | -17% | -67% | -11% | -58% | -99% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 28 |  World Liberty Financial WLFI | -75% | +0% | -35% | -16% | +0% | -79% | -20% | 2025-09-01 |
| 29 |  Morpho MORPHO | +33% | -15% | +16% | -12% | +13% | -51% | -33% | 2025-10-03 |
| 30 |  Pepe PEPE | +2% | +153% | +845% | +264% | +6% | -91% | -62% | 2023-05-05 |
| 31 |  Internet Computer ICP | -96% | +14% | -68% | -57% | -43% | -97% | -84% | 2021-09-01 |
| 32 |  Sky SKY | -10% | -15% | 0% | -22% | -34% | -46% | -32% | 2025-09-17 |
| 33 |  Worldcoin WLD | -80% | -17% | +24% | +43% | -73% | -98% | -79% | 2023-07-24 |
| 34 |  Arbitrum ARB | -83% | +42% | -2% | +2% | -19% | -97% | -74% | 2023-03-23 |
| 35 |  United Stables U | +0% | 0% | -1% | -1% | +0% | 0% | -1% | 2026-01-13 |
| 36 |  Ethereum Classic ETC | -88% | -61% | -37% | +5% | -58% | -92% | -43% | 2021-09-01 |
| 37 |  BFUSD BFUSD | +0% | -1% | -2% | -1% | -1% | 0% | -1% | 2025-08-13 |
| 38 |  POL (ex-MATIC) POL | -74% | -17% | +59% | -33% | -23% | -90% | -64% | 2024-09-13 |
| 39 |  JUST JST | +44% | -30% | +12% | -54% | +13% | -80% | -75% | 2021-09-01 |
| 40 |  Quant QNT | -66% | -35% | -21% | +4% | -86% | -89% | -52% | 2021-09-01 |
| 41 |  Jupiter JUP | -60% | -55% | -1% | -75% | -57% | -92% | -83% | 2024-01-31 |
| 42 |  Cosmos Hub ATOM | -93% | -50% | -63% | +64% | -43% | -97% | -49% | 2021-09-01 |
| 43 |  Algorand ALGO | -92% | +29% | +41% | +41% | -69% | -97% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 44 |  Filecoin FIL | -99% | -60% | -20% | -59% | -57% | -99% | -83% | 2021-09-01 |
| 45 |  NEXO NEXO | -64% | -3% | +96% | +64% | -12% | -78% | -26% | 2022-04-29 |
| 46 |  PancakeSwap CAKE | -90% | -24% | +146% | +2% | -74% | -96% | -59% | 2021-09-01 |
| 47 |  Render RENDER | -77% | -37% | -28% | -66% | +0% | -88% | -72% | 2024-07-26 |
| 48 |  Injective INJ | -51% | +733% | -19% | +109% | +589% | -95% | -74% | 2021-09-01 |
| 49 |  Dash DASH | -73% | +191% | -33% | -37% | -49% | -93% | -81% | 2021-09-01 |
| 50 |  VeChain VET | -94% | +107% | +318% | -7% | -44% | -98% | -64% | 2021-09-01 |
| 51 |  Ether.fi ETHFI | -77% | -31% | +42% | -6% | +18% | -96% | -64% | 2024-03-18 |
| 52 |  Aerodrome Finance AERO | +37% | +0% | -8% | +0% | +0% | -15% | +0% | 2026-07-17 |
| 53 |  Aptos APT | -90% | +14% | -40% | +20% | -48% | -97% | -76% | 2022-10-19 |
| 54 |  Official Trump TRUMP | -96% | -34% | -59% | -20% | +0% | -97% | -30% | 2025-01-19 |
| 55 |  Stacks STX | -81% | +281% | +114% | +101% | -39% | -97% | -70% | 2021-09-01 |
| 56 |  Curve DAO CRV | -85% | +148% | +421% | -12% | -84% | -97% | -73% | 2021-09-01 |
| 57 |  Pudgy Penguins PENGU | -72% | +43% | +144% | +80% | -50% | -91% | -47% | 2024-12-17 |
| 58 |  币安人生 (BinanceLife) 币安人生 | +257% | -8% | +369% | +438% | +6% | -85% | -32% | 2026-01-07 |
| 59 |  Pyth Network PYTH | -87% | -34% | -70% | -80% | -24% | -97% | -85% | 2024-02-02 |
| 60 |  Pendle PENDLE | +203% | -31% | +163% | +302% | -3% | -85% | -47% | 2023-07-03 |
| 61 |  Raydium RAY | -85% | +1,647% | +4,916% | +990% | +324% | -99% | -74% | 2021-09-01 |
| 62 |  Virtuals Protocol VIRTUAL | +25% | -54% | -22% | -47% | -3% | -79% | -56% | 2025-04-11 |
| 63 |  Artificial Superintelligence Alliance FET | -74% | +579% | +474% | +456% | +198% | -96% | -72% | 2021-09-01 |
| 64 |  Midnight NIGHT | -50% | +0% | -36% | +0% | +0% | -67% | +0% | 2026-03-11 |
| 65 |  Celestia TIA | -82% | -48% | -87% | -43% | -7% | -99% | -64% | 2023-10-31 |
| 66 |  Tezos XTZ | -95% | -42% | -64% | +14% | -44% | -98% | -45% | 2021-09-01 |
| 67 |  LayerZero ZRO | -67% | -58% | -70% | -64% | -3% | -90% | -72% | 2024-06-20 |
| 68 |  Falcon Finance FF | -55% | +43% | -36% | -25% | +24% | -79% | -56% | 2025-09-29 |
| 69 |  Lido DAO LDO | -80% | -45% | -36% | +39% | -50% | -94% | -66% | 2022-05-09 |
| 70 |  Sei SEI | -73% | -62% | +65% | +81% | -77% | -96% | -71% | 2023-08-15 |
| 71 |  Sun Token SUN | -48% | +99% | +110% | -10% | +40% | -88% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 72 |  Decred DCR | -90% | -53% | -70% | -78% | -76% | -95% | -88% | 2021-09-01 |
| 73 |  Gnosis GNO | -60% | -48% | +76% | -3% | -7% | -86% | -67% | 2021-09-01 |
| 74 |  Starknet STRK | -98% | -47% | -74% | -69% | -36% | -99% | -83% | 2024-02-20 |
| 75 |  Terra Luna Classic LUNC | -88% | +101% | -5% | +38% | -79% | -94% | -76% | 2022-09-09 |
| 76 |  Artificial Inu AI | -99% | -49% | -72% | -67% | -30% | -99% | -78% | 2024-01-04 |
| 77 |  Optimism OP | -90% | +87% | -47% | +63% | +50% | -98% | -72% | 2022-06-01 |
| 78 |  Arweave AR | -94% | +11% | -33% | -42% | +282% | -98% | -86% | 2021-09-01 |
| 79 |  Kite KITE | +44% | -26% | +121% | +47% | -8% | -70% | -42% | 2025-11-03 |
| 80 |  Bonk BONK | -87% | -27% | +185% | +0% | -61% | -96% | -56% | 2023-12-15 |
| 81 |  Ethereum Name Service ENS | -92% | -33% | +23% | -44% | -48% | -95% | -66% | 2021-11-10 |
| 82 |  Conflux CFX | -84% | +201% | -2% | +203% | -16% | -97% | -78% | 2021-09-01 |
| 83 |  Maple Finance SYRUP | 0% | -1% | -67% | -33% | +0% | -81% | -47% | 2025-05-06 |
| 84 |  FLOKI FLOKI | -46% | +74% | +615% | +87% | +40% | -94% | -79% | 2023-05-05 |
| 85 |  Plasma XPL | -93% | -36% | -65% | -40% | +0% | -96% | -45% | 2025-09-25 |
| 86 |  Jito JTO | -81% | -75% | -80% | +50% | -71% | -95% | -59% | 2023-12-07 |
| 87 |  Trust Wallet TWT | -48% | -13% | +4% | +55% | -70% | -87% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 88 |  Zama ZAMA | +70% | +5% | +14% | +60% | +20% | -49% | -29% | 2026-02-02 |
| 89 |  The Graph GRT | -98% | +63% | +238% | -14% | -34% | -99% | -60% | 2021-09-01 |
| 90 |  Theta Network THETA | -97% | -18% | +87% | -12% | -23% | -99% | -63% | 2021-09-01 |
| 91 |  IOTA IOTA | -96% | -16% | -52% | -7% | -72% | -98% | -66% | 2021-09-01 |
| 92 |  EigenCloud (prev. EigenLayer) EIGEN | -94% | -56% | -76% | -69% | -34% | -97% | -79% | 2024-10-01 |
| 93 |  Compound COMP | -96% | -8% | -67% | -30% | -75% | -97% | -64% | 2021-09-01 |
| 94 |  dogwifhat WIF | -86% | -39% | -68% | -25% | -36% | -97% | -56% | 2024-03-05 |
| 95 |  JasmyCoin JASMY | -98% | +7% | +396% | -7% | +37% | -99% | -83% | 2021-11-22 |
| 96 |  Kaia KAIA | -79% | -23% | -58% | -62% | -4% | -94% | -72% | 2024-10-31 |
| 97 |  Convex Finance CVX | -96% | -53% | +171% | -42% | -81% | -98% | -70% | 2021-12-23 |
| 98 |  THORChain RUNE | -95% | -5% | +354% | +212% | +45% | -98% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 99 |  Axie Infinity AXS | -99% | -68% | +198% | -48% | -48% | -99% | -73% | 2021-09-01 |
| 100 |  DoubleZero 2Z | -92% | -13% | -54% | -30% | +0% | -92% | -32% | 2025-10-02 |
Disklaimer: CryptoPriceSignal menerbitkan pembacaan teknikal otomatis berbasis aturan hanya untuk tujuan informasi dan edukasi. Tidak ada satu pun isi situs ini yang merupakan nasihat keuangan, investasi, atau trading. Kripto sangat fluktuatif; kinerja masa lalu suatu indikator tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan. Selalu lakukan riset sendiri dan jangan pernah berinvestasi melebihi kemampuan Anda menanggung kerugian. Sinyal dihitung ulang sekali sehari dari candle harian terakhir yang selesai (data per penutupan 2026-09-18 UTC).