Backtest de señales cripto: rendimiento de cada regla por moneda
Simulación solo en largo de cada regla con datos diarios de Binance desde 2021-09-01 (o desde la fecha de listado) hasta 2026-09-09, comisión del 0,1% por lado y ejecución en la vela siguiente.
| Regla | Rentabilidad mediana | Caída máxima mediana | Supera comprar y mantener |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comprar y mantener | -76% | -94% | – |
| Diaria | -8% | -57% | 82 / 97 |
| Semanal | -2% | -66% | 86 / 97 |
| Mensual | -1% | -62% | 84 / 97 |
| Anual | -30% | -68% | 82 / 97 |
Por qué las reglas de seguimiento de tendencia dominan en cripto
Antes de elegir estas reglas probamos quince estrategias populares de indicadores en 30 monedas de gran capitalización a lo largo de cinco años. Los enfoques de reversión a la media —comprar con el RSI por debajo de 30 o comprar en la banda inferior de Bollinger— perdieron dinero en conjunto, porque en cripto las tendencias bajistas duran mucho más de lo que sugieren los osciladores. El MACD por sí solo y el cruce dorado 50/200 resultaron demasiado lentos o demasiado ruidosos. Las cuatro reglas empleadas en este sitio (Supertrend con filtro de 200 días, rupturas Donchian 20/10 y 55/20, y un régimen de 200 días al alza) superaron a comprar y mantener en la mayoría de las monedas y redujeron aproximadamente a la mitad la caída máxima. Su tasa de acierto es baja (30-40%%) por diseño: acumulan muchas pérdidas pequeñas y unas pocas ganancias muy grandes.
Cada página de moneda muestra esta misma simulación para ese activo concreto; abajo está la tabla completa.
Resultados por moneda
| # | Moneda | Comprar y mantener | Diaria | Semanal | Mensual | Anual | Máx. caída de B&H | Caída máx. mensual | Desde |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bitcoin BTC | +60% | +113% | +141% | +57% | +100% | -77% | -39% | 2021-09-01 |
| 2 |  Ethereum ETH | -36% | +61% | +15% | +40% | -3% | -79% | -35% | 2021-09-01 |
| 3 |  BNB BNB | +48% | +39% | +62% | +47% | -21% | -70% | -45% | 2021-09-01 |
| 4 |  XRP XRP | +13% | -16% | +168% | +10% | -6% | -78% | -59% | 2021-09-01 |
| 5 |  Solana SOL | -8% | +340% | +777% | +62% | +211% | -96% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 6 |  TRON TRX | +257% | +31% | +12% | +11% | +238% | -60% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 7 |  Zcash ZEC | +720% | +462% | +2,864% | +674% | +422% | -94% | -77% | 2021-09-01 |
| 8 |  Dogecoin DOGE | -71% | +5% | +230% | +100% | -68% | -85% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 9 |  Chainlink LINK | -60% | -1% | -25% | -12% | -58% | -85% | -69% | 2021-09-01 |
| 10 |  Cardano ADA | -93% | -45% | -65% | -19% | -68% | -95% | -71% | 2021-09-01 |
| 11 |  Stellar XLM | -49% | +18% | +99% | +38% | -41% | -83% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 12 |  Bitcoin Cash BCH | -62% | +10% | -48% | +50% | -29% | -89% | -42% | 2021-09-01 |
| 13 |  Litecoin LTC | -71% | -75% | -81% | -78% | -56% | -85% | -83% | 2021-09-01 |
| 14 |  Gram (prev. Toncoin) GRAM | -18% | +0% | -10% | +0% | +0% | -26% | +0% | 2026-07-02 |
| 15 |  Uniswap UNI | -80% | -25% | -37% | -4% | -66% | -92% | -78% | 2021-09-01 |
| 16 |  Avalanche AVAX | -82% | +111% | +104% | +171% | -60% | -96% | -60% | 2021-09-01 |
| 17 |  Hedera HBAR | -71% | +21% | +160% | +70% | -46% | -93% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 18 |  NEAR Protocol NEAR | -55% | +66% | +431% | +41% | -32% | -95% | -77% | 2021-09-01 |
| 19 |  Sui SUI | -45% | +341% | +127% | +137% | +15% | -88% | -62% | 2023-05-03 |
| 20 |  Shiba Inu SHIB | -27% | -15% | +371% | +94% | +30% | -95% | -51% | 2021-09-01 |
| 21 |  Bittensor TAO | -59% | -69% | -31% | -14% | -51% | -80% | -58% | 2024-04-11 |
| 22 |  Aster ASTER | -64% | +6% | -36% | -19% | +5% | -77% | -29% | 2025-10-06 |
| 23 |  Aave AAVE | -70% | -21% | -62% | -40% | -47% | -88% | -76% | 2021-09-01 |
| 24 |  Polkadot DOT | -97% | -15% | -67% | -12% | -58% | -99% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 25 |  World Liberty Financial WLFI | -76% | +0% | -36% | -14% | +0% | -79% | -19% | 2025-09-01 |
| 26 |  Ondo ONDO | -60% | -45% | -18% | -29% | +1% | -80% | -41% | 2025-04-11 |
| 27 |  Pump.fun PUMP | -31% | +74% | +29% | +17% | +1% | -86% | -49% | 2025-09-11 |
| 28 |  Morpho MORPHO | +23% | -21% | +16% | -10% | +5% | -51% | -32% | 2025-10-03 |
| 29 |  Internet Computer ICP | -96% | +11% | -64% | -58% | -44% | -97% | -84% | 2021-09-01 |
| 30 |  Worldcoin WLD | -81% | -5% | +36% | +39% | -73% | -98% | -79% | 2023-07-24 |
| 31 |  Ethena ENA | -80% | +124% | -36% | +94% | -74% | -95% | -53% | 2024-04-02 |
| 32 |  Pepe PEPE | -7% | +136% | +916% | +291% | +6% | -91% | -62% | 2023-05-05 |
| 33 |  Sky SKY | -19% | -15% | 0% | -18% | -34% | -46% | -29% | 2025-09-17 |
| 34 |  BFUSD BFUSD | +0% | -1% | -2% | -1% | -1% | 0% | -1% | 2025-08-13 |
| 35 |  United Stables U | 0% | 0% | -1% | -1% | +0% | 0% | -1% | 2026-01-13 |
| 36 |  Ethereum Classic ETC | -88% | -59% | -32% | +3% | -58% | -92% | -43% | 2021-09-01 |
| 37 |  POL (ex-MATIC) POL | -76% | -17% | +59% | -39% | -23% | -90% | -64% | 2024-09-13 |
| 38 |  Arbitrum ARB | -89% | +60% | -34% | -31% | -45% | -97% | -74% | 2023-03-23 |
| 39 |  Quant QNT | -64% | -35% | -16% | +10% | -86% | -89% | -52% | 2021-09-01 |
| 40 |  Cosmos Hub ATOM | -93% | -43% | -55% | +77% | -43% | -97% | -46% | 2021-09-01 |
| 41 |  Algorand ALGO | -91% | +40% | +57% | +43% | -69% | -97% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 42 |  JUST JST | +35% | -35% | +4% | -57% | +6% | -80% | -75% | 2021-09-01 |
| 43 |  NEXO NEXO | -64% | -2% | +98% | +67% | -11% | -78% | -26% | 2022-04-29 |
| 44 |  Jupiter JUP | -65% | -61% | +7% | -78% | -62% | -92% | -81% | 2024-01-31 |
| 45 |  Render RENDER | -78% | -37% | -25% | -64% | +0% | -88% | -70% | 2024-07-26 |
| 46 |  Dash DASH | -75% | +238% | -22% | -42% | -53% | -93% | -81% | 2021-09-01 |
| 47 |  PancakeSwap CAKE | -91% | -30% | +128% | -5% | -75% | -96% | -59% | 2021-09-01 |
| 48 |  VeChain VET | -95% | +96% | +297% | -12% | -44% | -98% | -64% | 2021-09-01 |
| 49 |  Filecoin FIL | -99% | -53% | -31% | -64% | -57% | -99% | -83% | 2021-09-01 |
| 50 |  Ether.fi ETHFI | -80% | -41% | +21% | -20% | +1% | -96% | -64% | 2024-03-18 |
| 51 |  Injective INJ | -55% | +665% | -26% | +92% | +533% | -95% | -74% | 2021-09-01 |
| 52 |  Official Trump TRUMP | -96% | -34% | -59% | -16% | +0% | -97% | -26% | 2025-01-19 |
| 54 |  Aptos APT | -91% | +14% | -40% | +20% | -48% | -97% | -76% | 2022-10-19 |
| 55 |  Curve DAO CRV | -85% | +157% | +452% | -9% | -84% | -97% | -73% | 2021-09-01 |
| 56 |  Stacks STX | -82% | +268% | +132% | +94% | -42% | -97% | -70% | 2021-09-01 |
| 57 |  Pudgy Penguins PENGU | -73% | +50% | +144% | +89% | -47% | -91% | -47% | 2024-12-17 |
| 58 |  Falcon Finance FF | -46% | +70% | -24% | -11% | +47% | -79% | -56% | 2025-09-29 |
| 59 |  币安人生 (BinanceLife) 币安人生 | +236% | -8% | +389% | +438% | -1% | -85% | -32% | 2026-01-07 |
| 60 |  Virtuals Protocol VIRTUAL | +25% | -54% | -22% | -44% | -3% | -79% | -54% | 2025-04-11 |
| 61 |  Pyth Network PYTH | -89% | -43% | -69% | -83% | -34% | -97% | -85% | 2024-02-02 |
| 62 |  Artificial Superintelligence Alliance FET | -76% | +579% | +547% | +409% | +198% | -96% | -69% | 2021-09-01 |
| 63 |  Midnight NIGHT | -52% | +0% | -26% | +0% | +0% | -67% | +0% | 2026-03-11 |
| 64 |  LayerZero ZRO | -69% | -58% | -70% | -61% | -3% | -90% | -72% | 2024-06-20 |
| 65 |  Celestia TIA | -83% | -43% | -85% | -46% | +0% | -99% | -58% | 2023-10-31 |
| 66 |  Raydium RAY | -89% | +1,134% | +3,443% | +670% | +200% | -99% | -74% | 2021-09-01 |
| 67 |  Pendle PENDLE | +135% | -46% | +104% | +211% | -25% | -85% | -47% | 2023-07-03 |
| 68 |  Sun Token SUN | -48% | +99% | +110% | -10% | +40% | -88% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 69 |  Sei SEI | -74% | -62% | +76% | +104% | -77% | -96% | -67% | 2023-08-15 |
| 70 |  Lido DAO LDO | -81% | -48% | -34% | +54% | -52% | -94% | -64% | 2022-05-09 |
| 71 |  Gnosis GNO | -61% | -47% | +76% | -1% | -7% | -86% | -66% | 2021-09-01 |
| 72 |  Decred DCR | -91% | -55% | -67% | -80% | -76% | -95% | -88% | 2021-09-01 |
| 73 |  Tezos XTZ | -95% | -42% | -68% | +2% | -44% | -98% | -45% | 2021-09-01 |
| 74 |  Terra Luna Classic LUNC | -88% | +101% | -5% | +38% | -79% | -94% | -76% | 2022-09-09 |
| 75 |  Kite KITE | +47% | -26% | +121% | +56% | -8% | -70% | -39% | 2025-11-03 |
| 76 |  Conflux CFX | -84% | +201% | -2% | +196% | -16% | -97% | -78% | 2021-09-01 |
| 77 |  Bonk BONK | -88% | -27% | +213% | +0% | -61% | -96% | -56% | 2023-12-15 |
| 78 |  Maple Finance SYRUP | -3% | -4% | -66% | -35% | +0% | -81% | -47% | 2025-05-06 |
| 79 |  Plasma XPL | -93% | -36% | -65% | -40% | +0% | -96% | -45% | 2025-09-25 |
| 80 |  Ethereum Name Service ENS | -92% | -36% | +34% | -39% | -48% | -95% | -66% | 2021-11-10 |
| 81 |  Trust Wallet TWT | -46% | -1% | +10% | +62% | -70% | -87% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 82 |  FLOKI FLOKI | -48% | +74% | +651% | +96% | +40% | -94% | -78% | 2023-05-05 |
| 83 |  Optimism OP | -92% | +87% | -47% | +34% | +50% | -98% | -72% | 2022-06-01 |
| 84 |  Starknet STRK | -98% | -47% | -70% | -78% | -36% | -99% | -81% | 2024-02-20 |
| 85 |  Jito JTO | -82% | -75% | -80% | +50% | -71% | -95% | -59% | 2023-12-07 |
| 86 |  The Graph GRT | -98% | +63% | +268% | -21% | -34% | -99% | -60% | 2021-09-01 |
| 87 |  Artificial Inu AI | -99% | -49% | -72% | -67% | -30% | -99% | -78% | 2024-01-04 |
| 88 |  dogwifhat WIF | -87% | -41% | -66% | -18% | -36% | -97% | -55% | 2024-03-05 |
| 89 |  JasmyCoin JASMY | -98% | +7% | +396% | -5% | +37% | -99% | -82% | 2021-11-22 |
| 90 |  Compound COMP | -96% | -10% | -66% | -34% | -75% | -97% | -64% | 2021-09-01 |
| 91 |  Convex Finance CVX | -95% | -49% | +172% | -37% | -79% | -98% | -70% | 2021-12-23 |
| 92 |  Kaia KAIA | -79% | -23% | -55% | -62% | -4% | -94% | -72% | 2024-10-31 |
| 93 |  IOTA IOTA | -96% | -16% | -46% | +2% | -72% | -98% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 94 |  EigenCloud (prev. EigenLayer) EIGEN | -95% | -59% | -76% | -69% | -37% | -97% | -79% | 2024-10-01 |
| 95 |  Arweave AR | -95% | -16% | -26% | -56% | +190% | -98% | -86% | 2021-09-01 |
| 96 |  Theta Network THETA | -98% | -22% | +58% | -26% | -23% | -99% | -63% | 2021-09-01 |
| 97 |  MultiversX EGLD | -97% | +51% | +74% | +25% | -49% | -99% | -62% | 2021-09-01 |
| 98 |  DoubleZero 2Z | -92% | -13% | -54% | -30% | +0% | -92% | -32% | 2025-10-02 |
Aviso legal: CryptoPriceSignal publica lecturas técnicas automatizadas y basadas en reglas con fines exclusivamente informativos y educativos. Nada de lo publicado en este sitio constituye asesoramiento financiero, de inversión o de negociación. Las criptomonedas son muy volátiles; la rentabilidad pasada de cualquier indicador no garantiza resultados futuros. Investigue siempre por su cuenta y no invierta nunca más de lo que pueda permitirse perder. Las señales se recalculan una vez al día a partir de la última vela diaria completada (datos al cierre UTC de 2026-09-09).