Backtest de señales cripto: rendimiento de cada regla por moneda
Simulación solo en largo de cada regla con datos diarios de Binance desde 2021-09-01 (o desde la fecha de listado) hasta 2026-09-18, comisión del 0,1% por lado y ejecución en la vela siguiente.
| Regla | Rentabilidad mediana | Caída máxima mediana | Supera comprar y mantener |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comprar y mantener | -73% | -94% | – |
| Diaria | -8% | -58% | 82 / 100 |
| Semanal | -1% | -65% | 87 / 100 |
| Mensual | +0% | -63% | 84 / 100 |
| Anual | -19% | -68% | 82 / 100 |
Por qué las reglas de seguimiento de tendencia dominan en cripto
Antes de elegir estas reglas probamos quince estrategias populares de indicadores en 30 monedas de gran capitalización a lo largo de cinco años. Los enfoques de reversión a la media —comprar con el RSI por debajo de 30 o comprar en la banda inferior de Bollinger— perdieron dinero en conjunto, porque en cripto las tendencias bajistas duran mucho más de lo que sugieren los osciladores. El MACD por sí solo y el cruce dorado 50/200 resultaron demasiado lentos o demasiado ruidosos. Las cuatro reglas empleadas en este sitio (Supertrend con filtro de 200 días, rupturas Donchian 20/10 y 55/20, y un régimen de 200 días al alza) superaron a comprar y mantener en la mayoría de las monedas y redujeron aproximadamente a la mitad la caída máxima. Su tasa de acierto es baja (30-40%%) por diseño: acumulan muchas pérdidas pequeñas y unas pocas ganancias muy grandes.
Cada página de moneda muestra esta misma simulación para ese activo concreto; abajo está la tabla completa.
Resultados por moneda
| # | Moneda | Comprar y mantener | Diaria | Semanal | Mensual | Anual | Máx. caída de B&H | Caída máx. mensual | Desde |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bitcoin BTC | +66% | +120% | +136% | +54% | +107% | -77% | -39% | 2021-09-01 |
| 2 |  Ethereum ETH | -32% | +70% | +10% | +48% | +3% | -79% | -35% | 2021-09-01 |
| 3 |  BNB BNB | +56% | +46% | +71% | +55% | -16% | -70% | -45% | 2021-09-01 |
| 4 |  XRP XRP | +13% | -16% | +168% | +5% | -6% | -78% | -59% | 2021-09-01 |
| 5 |  Solana SOL | +2% | +388% | +751% | +55% | +246% | -96% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 6 |  TRON TRX | +256% | +30% | +12% | +11% | +237% | -60% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 7 |  Zcash ZEC | +930% | +606% | +3,621% | +872% | +555% | -94% | -77% | 2021-09-01 |
| 8 |  Dogecoin DOGE | -70% | +5% | +230% | +85% | -68% | -85% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 9 |  Chainlink LINK | -59% | -9% | -29% | -19% | -57% | -85% | -69% | 2021-09-01 |
| 10 |  Cardano ADA | -92% | -45% | -65% | -14% | -68% | -95% | -71% | 2021-09-01 |
| 11 |  Stellar XLM | -45% | +23% | +99% | +38% | -38% | -83% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 12 |  Uniswap UNI | -72% | +8% | -9% | +38% | -51% | -92% | -78% | 2021-09-01 |
| 13 |  Bitcoin Cash BCH | -61% | +10% | -54% | +33% | -29% | -89% | -42% | 2021-09-01 |
| 14 |  NEAR Protocol NEAR | -32% | +151% | +705% | +114% | +3% | -95% | -77% | 2021-09-01 |
| 15 |  Litecoin LTC | -68% | -73% | -82% | -75% | -56% | -85% | -83% | 2021-09-01 |
| 16 |  Avalanche AVAX | -81% | +111% | +91% | +186% | -60% | -96% | -60% | 2021-09-01 |
| 17 |  Gram (prev. Toncoin) GRAM | -18% | +0% | -10% | +0% | +0% | -26% | +0% | 2026-07-02 |
| 18 |  Hedera HBAR | -70% | +21% | +153% | +76% | -46% | -93% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 19 |  Sui SUI | -42% | +341% | +127% | +115% | +15% | -88% | -63% | 2023-05-03 |
| 20 |  Shiba Inu SHIB | -24% | -15% | +351% | +83% | +30% | -95% | -52% | 2021-09-01 |
| 21 |  Bittensor TAO | -60% | -71% | -41% | -15% | -55% | -80% | -58% | 2024-04-11 |
| 22 |  Aave AAVE | -66% | -13% | -63% | -42% | -41% | -88% | -76% | 2021-09-01 |
| 23 |  Ondo ONDO | -55% | -39% | -18% | -29% | +12% | -80% | -41% | 2025-04-11 |
| 24 |  Aster ASTER | -63% | +11% | -41% | -25% | +10% | -77% | -29% | 2025-10-06 |
| 25 |  Ethena ENA | -78% | +148% | -40% | +79% | -71% | -95% | -53% | 2024-04-02 |
| 26 |  Pump.fun PUMP | -28% | +47% | +29% | +5% | +4% | -86% | -49% | 2025-09-11 |
| 27 |  Polkadot DOT | -97% | -17% | -67% | -11% | -58% | -99% | -65% | 2021-09-01 |
| 28 |  World Liberty Financial WLFI | -75% | +0% | -35% | -16% | +0% | -79% | -20% | 2025-09-01 |
| 29 |  Morpho MORPHO | +33% | -15% | +16% | -12% | +13% | -51% | -33% | 2025-10-03 |
| 30 |  Pepe PEPE | +2% | +153% | +845% | +264% | +6% | -91% | -62% | 2023-05-05 |
| 31 |  Internet Computer ICP | -96% | +14% | -68% | -57% | -43% | -97% | -84% | 2021-09-01 |
| 32 |  Sky SKY | -10% | -15% | 0% | -22% | -34% | -46% | -32% | 2025-09-17 |
| 33 |  Worldcoin WLD | -80% | -17% | +24% | +43% | -73% | -98% | -79% | 2023-07-24 |
| 34 |  Arbitrum ARB | -83% | +42% | -2% | +2% | -19% | -97% | -74% | 2023-03-23 |
| 35 |  United Stables U | +0% | 0% | -1% | -1% | +0% | 0% | -1% | 2026-01-13 |
| 36 |  Ethereum Classic ETC | -88% | -61% | -37% | +5% | -58% | -92% | -43% | 2021-09-01 |
| 37 |  BFUSD BFUSD | +0% | -1% | -2% | -1% | -1% | 0% | -1% | 2025-08-13 |
| 38 |  POL (ex-MATIC) POL | -74% | -17% | +59% | -33% | -23% | -90% | -64% | 2024-09-13 |
| 39 |  JUST JST | +44% | -30% | +12% | -54% | +13% | -80% | -75% | 2021-09-01 |
| 40 |  Quant QNT | -66% | -35% | -21% | +4% | -86% | -89% | -52% | 2021-09-01 |
| 41 |  Jupiter JUP | -60% | -55% | -1% | -75% | -57% | -92% | -83% | 2024-01-31 |
| 42 |  Cosmos Hub ATOM | -93% | -50% | -63% | +64% | -43% | -97% | -49% | 2021-09-01 |
| 43 |  Algorand ALGO | -92% | +29% | +41% | +41% | -69% | -97% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 44 |  Filecoin FIL | -99% | -60% | -20% | -59% | -57% | -99% | -83% | 2021-09-01 |
| 45 |  NEXO NEXO | -64% | -3% | +96% | +64% | -12% | -78% | -26% | 2022-04-29 |
| 46 |  PancakeSwap CAKE | -90% | -24% | +146% | +2% | -74% | -96% | -59% | 2021-09-01 |
| 47 |  Render RENDER | -77% | -37% | -28% | -66% | +0% | -88% | -72% | 2024-07-26 |
| 48 |  Injective INJ | -51% | +733% | -19% | +109% | +589% | -95% | -74% | 2021-09-01 |
| 49 |  Dash DASH | -73% | +191% | -33% | -37% | -49% | -93% | -81% | 2021-09-01 |
| 50 |  VeChain VET | -94% | +107% | +318% | -7% | -44% | -98% | -64% | 2021-09-01 |
| 51 |  Ether.fi ETHFI | -77% | -31% | +42% | -6% | +18% | -96% | -64% | 2024-03-18 |
| 52 |  Aerodrome Finance AERO | +37% | +0% | -8% | +0% | +0% | -15% | +0% | 2026-07-17 |
| 53 |  Aptos APT | -90% | +14% | -40% | +20% | -48% | -97% | -76% | 2022-10-19 |
| 54 |  Official Trump TRUMP | -96% | -34% | -59% | -20% | +0% | -97% | -30% | 2025-01-19 |
| 55 |  Stacks STX | -81% | +281% | +114% | +101% | -39% | -97% | -70% | 2021-09-01 |
| 56 |  Curve DAO CRV | -85% | +148% | +421% | -12% | -84% | -97% | -73% | 2021-09-01 |
| 57 |  Pudgy Penguins PENGU | -72% | +43% | +144% | +80% | -50% | -91% | -47% | 2024-12-17 |
| 58 |  币安人生 (BinanceLife) 币安人生 | +257% | -8% | +369% | +438% | +6% | -85% | -32% | 2026-01-07 |
| 59 |  Pyth Network PYTH | -87% | -34% | -70% | -80% | -24% | -97% | -85% | 2024-02-02 |
| 60 |  Pendle PENDLE | +203% | -31% | +163% | +302% | -3% | -85% | -47% | 2023-07-03 |
| 61 |  Raydium RAY | -85% | +1,647% | +4,916% | +990% | +324% | -99% | -74% | 2021-09-01 |
| 62 |  Virtuals Protocol VIRTUAL | +25% | -54% | -22% | -47% | -3% | -79% | -56% | 2025-04-11 |
| 63 |  Artificial Superintelligence Alliance FET | -74% | +579% | +474% | +456% | +198% | -96% | -72% | 2021-09-01 |
| 64 |  Midnight NIGHT | -50% | +0% | -36% | +0% | +0% | -67% | +0% | 2026-03-11 |
| 65 |  Celestia TIA | -82% | -48% | -87% | -43% | -7% | -99% | -64% | 2023-10-31 |
| 66 |  Tezos XTZ | -95% | -42% | -64% | +14% | -44% | -98% | -45% | 2021-09-01 |
| 67 |  LayerZero ZRO | -67% | -58% | -70% | -64% | -3% | -90% | -72% | 2024-06-20 |
| 68 |  Falcon Finance FF | -55% | +43% | -36% | -25% | +24% | -79% | -56% | 2025-09-29 |
| 69 |  Lido DAO LDO | -80% | -45% | -36% | +39% | -50% | -94% | -66% | 2022-05-09 |
| 70 |  Sei SEI | -73% | -62% | +65% | +81% | -77% | -96% | -71% | 2023-08-15 |
| 71 |  Sun Token SUN | -48% | +99% | +110% | -10% | +40% | -88% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 72 |  Decred DCR | -90% | -53% | -70% | -78% | -76% | -95% | -88% | 2021-09-01 |
| 73 |  Gnosis GNO | -60% | -48% | +76% | -3% | -7% | -86% | -67% | 2021-09-01 |
| 74 |  Starknet STRK | -98% | -47% | -74% | -69% | -36% | -99% | -83% | 2024-02-20 |
| 75 |  Terra Luna Classic LUNC | -88% | +101% | -5% | +38% | -79% | -94% | -76% | 2022-09-09 |
| 76 |  Artificial Inu AI | -99% | -49% | -72% | -67% | -30% | -99% | -78% | 2024-01-04 |
| 77 |  Optimism OP | -90% | +87% | -47% | +63% | +50% | -98% | -72% | 2022-06-01 |
| 78 |  Arweave AR | -94% | +11% | -33% | -42% | +282% | -98% | -86% | 2021-09-01 |
| 79 |  Kite KITE | +44% | -26% | +121% | +47% | -8% | -70% | -42% | 2025-11-03 |
| 80 |  Bonk BONK | -87% | -27% | +185% | +0% | -61% | -96% | -56% | 2023-12-15 |
| 81 |  Ethereum Name Service ENS | -92% | -33% | +23% | -44% | -48% | -95% | -66% | 2021-11-10 |
| 82 |  Conflux CFX | -84% | +201% | -2% | +203% | -16% | -97% | -78% | 2021-09-01 |
| 83 |  Maple Finance SYRUP | 0% | -1% | -67% | -33% | +0% | -81% | -47% | 2025-05-06 |
| 84 |  FLOKI FLOKI | -46% | +74% | +615% | +87% | +40% | -94% | -79% | 2023-05-05 |
| 85 |  Plasma XPL | -93% | -36% | -65% | -40% | +0% | -96% | -45% | 2025-09-25 |
| 86 |  Jito JTO | -81% | -75% | -80% | +50% | -71% | -95% | -59% | 2023-12-07 |
| 87 |  Trust Wallet TWT | -48% | -13% | +4% | +55% | -70% | -87% | -56% | 2021-09-01 |
| 88 |  Zama ZAMA | +70% | +5% | +14% | +60% | +20% | -49% | -29% | 2026-02-02 |
| 89 |  The Graph GRT | -98% | +63% | +238% | -14% | -34% | -99% | -60% | 2021-09-01 |
| 90 |  Theta Network THETA | -97% | -18% | +87% | -12% | -23% | -99% | -63% | 2021-09-01 |
| 91 |  IOTA IOTA | -96% | -16% | -52% | -7% | -72% | -98% | -66% | 2021-09-01 |
| 92 |  EigenCloud (prev. EigenLayer) EIGEN | -94% | -56% | -76% | -69% | -34% | -97% | -79% | 2024-10-01 |
| 93 |  Compound COMP | -96% | -8% | -67% | -30% | -75% | -97% | -64% | 2021-09-01 |
| 94 |  dogwifhat WIF | -86% | -39% | -68% | -25% | -36% | -97% | -56% | 2024-03-05 |
| 95 |  JasmyCoin JASMY | -98% | +7% | +396% | -7% | +37% | -99% | -83% | 2021-11-22 |
| 96 |  Kaia KAIA | -79% | -23% | -58% | -62% | -4% | -94% | -72% | 2024-10-31 |
| 97 |  Convex Finance CVX | -96% | -53% | +171% | -42% | -81% | -98% | -70% | 2021-12-23 |
| 98 |  THORChain RUNE | -95% | -5% | +354% | +212% | +45% | -98% | -58% | 2021-09-01 |
| 99 |  Axie Infinity AXS | -99% | -68% | +198% | -48% | -48% | -99% | -73% | 2021-09-01 |
| 100 |  DoubleZero 2Z | -92% | -13% | -54% | -30% | +0% | -92% | -32% | 2025-10-02 |
Aviso legal: CryptoPriceSignal publica lecturas técnicas automatizadas y basadas en reglas con fines exclusivamente informativos y educativos. Nada de lo publicado en este sitio constituye asesoramiento financiero, de inversión o de negociación. Las criptomonedas son muy volátiles; la rentabilidad pasada de cualquier indicador no garantiza resultados futuros. Investigue siempre por su cuenta y no invierta nunca más de lo que pueda permitirse perder. Las señales se recalculan una vez al día a partir de la última vela diaria completada (datos al cierre UTC de 2026-09-18).